In each of the past nine Premier League campaigns, teams that finished with 36 points or more were guaranteed to stay in the top flight. Since the league expanded to 20 teams in the 1995-96 season, the average points total needed to secure 17th place and avoid the drop stands at 35.53.
No club has collected 36 points and still faced relegation over the last nine seasons. However, the current season is shaping up to be the most challenging for survival in 15 years. After 35 matches, the team in 18th place is projected to end the season with 39 points, suggesting that reaching 40 points would be sufficient to ensure safety.
Across the 30 Premier League seasons played with 38 games, earning 36 points has secured survival 60% of the time. That success rate climbs to 80% with 38 points, 90% with 40 points, and reaches 100% with 43 points or more.
West Ham United holds the record for the highest points tally by a relegated team in the 20-team era. In the 2002-03 season, the Hammers collected 42 points but still dropped down to the Championship.
The points threshold for safety has been notably lower in the last two seasons, largely due to difficulties faced by newly promoted sides. The previous two campaigns required just 26 and 27 points, respectively, to avoid relegation. Before the 2023-24 season, only one instance saw a total under 30 points enough for survival.
According to historical data, the likelihood of survival increases with higher points totals:
– 25 points or less: survival in 0 out of 30 seasons (0%)
– 26 points: survival in 1 season (3.33%)
– 27 points: survival in 2 seasons (6.67%)
– 28 points: survival in 2 seasons (6.67%)
– 29 points: survival in 3 seasons (10%)
– 30 points: survival in 3 seasons (10%)
– 31 points: survival in 4 seasons (13.33%)
– 32 points: survival in 4 seasons (13.33%)
– 33 points: survival in 4 seasons (13.33%)
– 34 points: survival in 9 seasons (30%)
– 35 points: survival in 16 seasons (53.33%)
– 36 points: survival in 18 seasons (60%)
– 37 points: survival in 23 seasons (76.67%)
– 38 points: survival in 24 seasons (80%)
– 39 points: survival in 26 seasons (86.67%)
– 40 points: survival in 27 seasons (90%)
– 41 points: survival in 29 seasons (96.67%)
– 42 points: survival in 29 seasons (96.67%)
– 43+ points: survival in 30 seasons (100%)
A historical breakdown of points required to survive in the Premier League:
– 1992-93: 50 (42-game season)
– 1993-94: 43 (42-game season)
– 1994-95: 46 (42-game season)
– 1995-96: 39
– 1996-97: 41
– 1997-98: 41
– 1998-99: 37
– 1999-00: 34
– 2000-01: 35
– 2001-02: 37
– 2002-03: 43
– 2003-04: 34
– 2004-05: 34
– 2005-06: 35
– 2006-07: 39
– 2007-08: 37
– 2008-09: 35
– 2009-10: 31
– 2010-11: 40
– 2011-12: 37
– 2012-13: 37
– 2013-14: 34
– 2014-15: 36
– 2015-16: 38
– 2016-17: 35
– 2017-18: 34
– 2018-19: 35
– 2019-20: 35
– 2020-21: 29
– 2021-22: 36
– 2022-23: 35
– 2023-24: 27
– 2024-25: 26